Category Archives: Horse Race

Why have a winner if you don’t keep score?

Three Ways to Watch the Presidential Returns

The day of the Brexit vote, the very first constituency to report results, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, reported a defeat for Brexit, 51%-49%. The defeat for Brexit there was expected. However, the margin was wrong: experts had expected Brexit to fail in Newcastle … Continue reading

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Trump for Thee but Not for Me

Oh, look, another comment on the 2016 election. I can’t seem to escape it. At least I’ve made it a whole year without ever using a Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton photograph as a featured image. One of the things … Continue reading

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Vacate the Nomination

This post was updated on 9 October 2016. Updates are at the bottom. Since winning the nomination, Donald J. Trump has done all of the following: insulted the family of a man who died in service of his country; kicked … Continue reading

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De Civitate’s Delegate Loyalty Tracker

UPDATE 10 MAY 2016: In light of Trump’s presumptive nomination, Saturday’s delegate results (which were basically “Everything’s Coming Up Trump”), and the fact that it has become even harder to track delegate loyalties now that there’s only one candidate in the … Continue reading

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Quantifying the Kasich Spoiler Effect

According to exit polls, if John Kasich dropped out of the presidential race, 45% of his voters would stay home.  37% would vote for Ted Cruz.  18% would vote for Donald Trump. These are the numbers FiveThirtyEight computed last week, which … Continue reading

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The March 15th Panic Has Begun: A Reply to Tim Alberta

Mr. Tim Alberta, a generally commendable fellow whose columns I typically enjoy, has a piece up at National Review today arguing that, if Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida tomorrow, it will be “nearly impossible” for his only viable competitor, … Continue reading

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The De Civitate Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker

Skip To: May 3 | April 26 | April 19 | April 6 | March 22 | March 15 | March 12 | March 8 | March 6 | March 1 A few weeks ago, I wrote a fairly popular post, “Trump’s Delegate … Continue reading

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