Category Archives: Horse Race

Why have a winner if you don’t keep score?

How Much Is Rubio Helping Trump? (P.S. You Too, Kasich)

UPDATE: Infographic now in HD high-definition. Our thanks to the artist, Mike Dupuis, for sending us the high-resolution file. In my last post, I predicted that Rubio’s continued presence in the race is not worth it, even in the extremely unlikely … Continue reading

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Trump’s Delegate Lead is Overstated

UPDATE: I have launched a Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker based on the “Nightmare Scenario” laid out in this post.  The media and narrative-driven, math-challenged insiders have largely set their sights on March 15th as the pivotal day, just as this post … Continue reading

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Chris Christie May No Longer Receive Communion

This morning, Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), who is running for president, attacked Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who is also running for president, by arguing that Rubio is too pro-life. From the New York Times:

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Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis

In my recent (and surprisingly popular) post about the weirdly good polls the Democrats have been seeing recently, I suggested that the polls might be suffering from an unidentified systemic source of bias.  I promised a followup discussing the implications … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Horse Race, Politics | 1,796 Comments

The Great Democratic Turnout Miracle

During this cycle, likely voter polls have consistently shown more Democrats showing up to vote than Republicans. Actually, that is a bit of an understatement.  It is perfectly normal for Democrats to outnumber Republicans, even at the polls, even in strong Republican … Continue reading

Posted in Horse Race, Mere Opinion, Politics | 2,546 Comments