I’ve concluded the De Civitate Poor-Man’s Stop-Trump delegate tracker with a final entry marking the climactic defeat of May 3rd.
Since last week, when I wrote that it all comes down to Indiana, the situation has become desperate. According to reliable reports, internal polls, which seemed merely shaky when I wrote my piece, have since gone into free-fall. Public polls … Continue reading
“If Trump wins every single delegate of the night, that’s unfortunate but not entirely unexpected. Tonight’s tactical voting is to minimize the damage, not to actually make any gains. Indiana is the race that matters, and they’re on May 3rd.” … Continue reading
I don’t love tactical voting — it is both vaguely distasteful voting for someone you don’t much like for the sake of someone you do, and really hard to coordinate — but I also want my candidate to win this … Continue reading
UPDATE 10 MAY 2016: In light of Trump’s presumptive nomination, Saturday’s delegate results (which were basically “Everything’s Coming Up Trump”), and the fact that it has become even harder to track delegate loyalties now that there’s only one candidate in the … Continue reading
I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading
Just an FYI: I’ve updated the Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker following the anti-Trump triumph in Wisconsin on Tuesday.
In my recent piece on convention delegates, I speculated that, in the scrum to win the loyalty of as many delegates as possible, Ted Cruz would have the edge. Cruz has a strong organization, has been gearing up for precisely … Continue reading
I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading
According to exit polls, if John Kasich dropped out of the presidential race, 45% of his voters would stay home. 37% would vote for Ted Cruz. 18% would vote for Donald Trump. These are the numbers FiveThirtyEight computed last week, which … Continue reading