Category Archives: Analysis

Just The Facts, Ma’am: The Vatican Embassy Closing

Fact-checking is a decadent industry.  Mainstream fact-checkers at the Washington Post and PolitiFact rate politicians’ claims on multi-point scales ranging from “Pants On Fire” to “The Geppetto Checkmark.”  To manage these multi-point scales, fact-checkers must resort to subjective measurements of “relevant … Continue reading

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No, Republicans Have Not Blocked 82 Obama Nominees

SPOILER ALERT: At the end of this article, we will reveal that Republicans have in fact blocked only 8 Obama nominees. The golden rule of infographics: the vaguer the source cited, the falser the claim. Today, Senate Democrats under Sen. … Continue reading

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GUEST POST: A Good and Proper Trouncing of Pro-Amendment Heffalumps and Woozles, by David Allender

This piece was published on Facebook on Sunday, November 4, 2012.  It is reposted with permission from the author.  My response is here. There is a particular kind of violence in this world that has always bothered me. It hides … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Mere Opinion | 1,257 Comments

Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis

In my recent (and surprisingly popular) post about the weirdly good polls the Democrats have been seeing recently, I suggested that the polls might be suffering from an unidentified systemic source of bias.  I promised a followup discussing the implications … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Horse Race, Politics | 1,796 Comments