Tag Archives: nate silver is the chief forecaster of my heart

Three Ways to Watch the Election Returns: 2020 Pandemic Edition

by James J Heaney Posted on 3 November 2020

The day of the Brexit vote, the very first constituency to report results, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, reported a defeat for Brexit, 51%-49%. The defeat for Brexit there was expected. However, the margin was wrong: experts had expected Brexit to fail in Newcastle by 12 points, not … Continue reading →

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Three Ways to Watch the Presidential Returns

by James J Heaney Posted on 8 November 2016

The day of the Brexit vote, the very first constituency to report results, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, reported a defeat for Brexit, 51%-49%. The defeat for Brexit there was expected. However, the margin was wrong: experts had expected Brexit to fail in Newcastle … Continue reading →

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Trump, Brexit, and Our Uncertain Election

by James J Heaney Posted on 8 November 2016

A few weeks ago, Trump supporters were talking about how their man was going to win even though all the polls showed him losing, “just like Brexit!” Those of us who knew something about Brexit said this was stupid, and rightly … Continue reading →

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